Consumers eyeing “staycation summer” suggests GfK

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index stayed at -9 in June. Four measures were up in comparison to the May 21st announcement (including the Major Purchase Inde, which increased by two points to -5 – 27 points higher than it was this month last year) and one measure was down. The overall picture is a brighter one for personal finances, but in the longer term, the threat of inflation could derail recovery, suggests GfK

Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, says: “While the shifting sands of an end to lockdown might be the closest most of us get to a summer beach holiday, consumer confidence remains stable at -9 after 16 months of a Covid-induced rollercoaster.

“A repetition of last month’s score doesn’t mean confidence is about to nosedive. The upwards trajectory for the index since the dark days at the start of the pandemic is currently still on track. However, forecasts for rising retail price inflation could weaken consumer confidence quickly and that may account for the six-point dip in June in our measure for the wider economy in the coming year.

“On a more positive note, we have strong numbers for our personal financial situation, both for the past year and the year to come. In addition, this month’s further improvement in the Major Purchase Index – the third month in a row – could see shoppers spending in anticipation of a staycation summer.”

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